While I was sitting in the State offices for registering a new business, I had chance to chat with my fellow waitees (the office personnel are friendly but the service is not rapid fire). We were discussing the price of a gallon of gasoline and the price of a barrel of crude oil. It was baffling to some of my fellow entrepreneurs, why the prices are so high. I have pondered this for a bit, along with watching the international picture. Sure, there’s less war to support right now than there was before; however, there’s the imminent threat of one even bigger looming on the near horizon.
I mentioned that perhaps our government, sensing that we may have a problem on our hands, was stockpiling oil and gas in case Iran happens to successfully interrupt the flow for a substantial amount of time. This would be a sensible thing to do and under the circumstances. As hard as it is to get around with gas at over $4.00 a gallon, I can see how this might be a good thing; provided that Is what our government is doing. I for one, hope they are.
Although the fellows conceded that it might be justified for gas to go up if that’s what the government was doing, they wondered how we could possibly be worried about a little country like Iran. “We have such a large military force, surely we can control any threat coming out of Iran,” they said. “Surely we could deal them a crippling blow before they could deal one to us.” Surely they are rational people and know this?
I conceded that they were smaller than us, but pointed out that they have a border on a critical choke point in the oil shipping lanes. although it has been said of them that they are rational, in their own way, I pointed out that what seemed rational to them, might not be what we wanted it to be. It might be that what seems rational to them is hurting us back. It wouldn’t be difficult for them to hurt us by throwing a wrench in the direction of our oil shipments.
The fellows conceded that it would be bad if they held things up there, but pointed out that there were other shipping lanes available. I, in turn, pointed out that there was trouble in other countries on critical shipping points as well.
If I were an Iranian leader who had my back against the wall being threatened by multiple big league governments, I would start instituting some big time war game plans. I would make deals with countries that were friendly to my country, like Russia, who is a trading partner with them; and deal with rebels in countries that didn’t have friendly governments.
I would agree to back the rebels in their efforts if they would cooperate with my country and target the oil shipping points. Yemen is such a country. They sit on a vital shipping lane as well, and their rebels, who were responsible for blowing a hole in the U.S.S. Cole, have been causing a lot of problems for a long time.
The fellows conceded this was true. One of the fellows objected still and said we could just get an increase in shipments from Western African countries. I pointed out that they had their problems too, and were also vulnerable to rebels and dissidents. One of the fellows getting his new business license was from western Africa. He chimed in with, Oh yes. they do have their rebel troubles too.
So, if I were a rational Iranian leader, wouldn’t I take advantage of all these troubled countries? Wouldn’t I make deals and throw support in for the rebel causes? If enough fires were started at the same time, the big countries wouldn’t be able to respond effectively. They’d be too busy trying to figure out where to get their next oil shipments.
© Ellen M Story and EMariaEnterprises, LLC 2012
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